Nigeria’s ability to benefit from China’s zero-tariff access for African exports may be limited in the short term, as structural weaknesses and a narrow export base continue to constrain its trade potential.

While the policy opens access to a vast consumer market, Nigeria’s exports to China remain heavily concentrated in crude oil, which accounts for the bulk of its shipments.

Bilateral trade between the two countries runs into tens of billions of dollars annually, but Nigeria imports significantly more, mainly machinery, electronics, and manufactured goods, than it exports.

Economic analysts, including those at the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, have consistently pointed to the country’s limited industrial base and weak value addition as key constraints.

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry has also highlighted persistent challenges such as high production costs, unreliable power supply, and policy inconsistencies.

“The opportunity is there, but capacity is the issue. We are not producing at the scale or efficiency needed to compete in a market like China,” said Ben Ademola, a Lagos-based manufacturer involved in agro-processing.

Attention is therefore shifting toward non-oil sectors as Nigeria is among the world’s leading producers of sesame seeds and cashew nuts, both of which have established demand in China. Cocoa and processed food products are also seen as potential growth areas if supply chains and quality standards improve.

However, global developments may complicate these prospects. Rising tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, creating a mixed outlook for Nigeria. While this could boost government revenues, it also raises domestic costs.

“Higher fuel and logistics costs affect everything, from production to export,” said Abdul, a logistics operator. “By the time goods get to the port, margins are already squeezed.”

Increased freight charges and potential disruptions along global shipping routes could further reduce the competitiveness of Nigerian exports.

The Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture has repeatedly identified port congestion and high inland transportation costs as major barriers to export growth.

Foreign exchange constraints and limited access to trade finance also remain key challenges for exporters.

According to the African Export-Import Bank, scaling Africa’s exports will require sustained investment in industrialisation and trade infrastructure.

For Nigeria, analysts say, China’s zero-tariff policy presents an opportunity, but not an automatic breakthrough.

Without significant improvements in production capacity and export readiness, the country risks capturing only a small share of the potential gains.