When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week revised Nigeria’s growth outlook upward to 4.4 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, it framed the move as evidence of “improved macroeconomic stability” across Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa.
The revision echoed a similarly upbeat assessment by the World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects report released on January 13, 2026, which also placed Nigeria’s growth outlook at 4.4 percent for both 2026 and 2027.
On paper, the figures are reassuring. In global financial circles, they signal renewed investor confidence, policy credibility, and a sense that Nigeria may finally be emerging from years of inflationary pressure, COVID-19 disruptions, currency instability, insecurity, and decaying infrastructure.
On the streets, however, the story sounds very different. For millions of Nigerians battling high food prices, joblessness, unreliable power supply, and worsening insecurity, growth projections increasingly feel detached from everyday life.
Data over the past decade helps explain this disconnect. World Bank estimates show that Nigeria’s poverty rate has worsened rather than improved, rising from about 35 percent in the mid-2010s to over 40 percent in recent years, with more than 80 million people now living below the national poverty line. Over the same period, food inflation has consistently outpaced headline inflation, accelerating sharply after 2020 and rising above 40 percent in 2024, before easing modestly in 2025, which is still far above pre-pandemic levels.
Energy costs have also surged, driven by fuel subsidy removal, higher electricity tariffs, and widespread reliance on generators. Meanwhile, GDP has continued to increase in most years, but employment growth has lagged far behind population growth, with unemployment and underemployment remaining stubbornly high. The result is an economy that grows on paper while household incomes remain stagnant or fall in real terms.
This contradiction raises uncomfortable questions. Why has Nigeria recorded steady growth forecasts since 2015 without a corresponding drop in poverty? Why has “growth” not translated into higher incomes, more jobs, or better living standards? And what real value do these projections hold for ordinary citizens?
Economists say the issue is not growth forecasting itself, but the nature of Nigeria’s growth and the policy environment surrounding it. They argue that the country’s expansion has been structurally weak, poorly distributed, and largely disconnected from the sectors that employ most Nigerians.
A professor at the University of Benin describes international growth projections as largely removed from Nigeria’s lived reality.
“I have never been enthused by these so-called growth forecasts because they are of little utility in my view. They appear largely disconnected from the reality we see around us on a daily basis,” he said.
He questioned how institutions thousands of kilometres away can accurately model growth without fully accounting for Nigeria’s structural constraints.
“What sense does it make for IMF and World Bank officials, sitting in their cozy offices in Washington, to be making growth projections for the Nigerian economy when they are far removed from the harsh reality of epileptic power supply, insecurity, collapsed roads, and the absence of basic facilities that support production?”
He pointed to agriculture, once the backbone of the economy, as a clear example. Insecurity in food-producing states such as Benue has displaced farmers, reduced output, and disrupted supply chains.
“Do these forecasts take into account what has happened in Benue State, once proudly called the food basket of the nation?” he asked.
For the professor, this disconnect explains why growth has failed to reduce poverty. “They cannot, because they ignore some of the most fundamental realities of the Nigerian economy.”
The result is a paradox: GDP rises while unemployment and poverty also increase.
Still, he does not dismiss forecasting entirely. He argues that projections can support planning, but only when grounded in facts.
“They can aid planning by households, businesses, and government, if and only if they are based on hard realities on the ground, not guesswork.”
Across all expert views, one theme stands out: policy failure. Weak infrastructure planning, insecurity, high inflation, inconsistent reforms, and excessive borrowing have blocked the link between growth and welfare.
Growth, he said, is policy-driven. “Bad policy can produce growth without development. Only when policies improve access to finance, security, infrastructure, and production costs will growth translate into better lives.”
Despite their criticism, economists agree that growth forecasts still serve a purpose. They said they signal expected economic performance to investors and policymakers. Okeke added that projections shape global perception, even when domestic realities lag behind.
Nigeria’s experience, however, highlights a deeper truth: growth is not development. GDP can rise while poverty deepens. Forecasts can improve while hunger spreads.
For growth to matter, experts insist it must be productive, inclusive, and job-creating, anchored in electricity, security, infrastructure, skills, affordable finance, and accountable governance.
Until then, Nigeria risks repeating a familiar cycle: glowing projections, rising GDP figures, and worsening human welfare.
As the professor warns, forecasts that ignore reality cannot change reality. And as some economists conclude, growth without inclusion only widens inequality.
The real question, then, is not whether Nigeria can grow, but whether it can grow in a way that lifts its people.
