On June 12 every year, Nigeria marks Democracy Day. Across the country, from the parade ground in Abuja to state capitals, the day is commemorated with flags, speeches and reflections on the nation’s democratic journey. While June 12 was originally associated with the annulled 1993 presidential election and the sacrifices of pro-democracy activists, it has since evolved into a barometer for measuring the trajectory of Nigeria’s democratic experiment and how far it has travelled since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

Suffice it to state that June 12, monikered Democracy Day, was previously celebrated every May 29 until 2018 when the late President Muhammadu Buhari declared June 12 as the new date for its observance in commemoration of the election of the late Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (M.K.O.) Abiola as President of Nigeria. The decision immortalised Chief Abiola and further underscored the significance of the June 12 election in Nigeria’s political history.

Historically, Nigeria has had four republics. Following years of military rule, presidential elections were held on June 12, 1993. The election, won by the late M.K.O. Abiola, was widely adjudged by both local and international observers as the freest, fairest and most credible election in the country’s history. Although the election was subsequently annulled by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida, it remains a defining moment in Nigeria’s democratic evolution.

Beyond its credibility, the June 12 election challenged several assumptions about politics in Nigeria. It demonstrated that a country often divided along ethnic and religious lines could rise above such sentiments. Running on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), M.K.O. Abiola and his running mate, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, both Muslims, secured broad national support across regional and religious divides.

June 12 also remains significant because of its symbolism, the sacrifices of Chief M.K.O. Abiola and other pro-democracy activists, and the demonstration that Nigeria can conduct credible elections under an independent electoral body led by individuals of integrity, such as the late Professor Humphrey Nwosu. Above all, it recalls the historic ”Epetedo Declaration” of June 11, 1994, when Chief Abiola publicly declared himself the rightful winner of the June 12 election in an effort to reclaim his mandate.

Primarily, Abiola’s ”Hope ’93” manifesto embodied high expectations for Nigeria’s future. It promised economic transformation, poverty reduction, industrial development and greater national influence on the global stage. More than three decades later, however, an important question remains: have the aspirations of ”Hope ’93” been realised under Nigeria’s democratic dispensation, or did much of that promise die with the martyrdom of M.K.O. Abiola, Kudirat Abiola and other pro-democracy figures?

Thus, for many Nigerians, June 12 is not merely a day of commemoration. It is an opportunity to reflect on the country’s democratic journey, assess the gains and shortcomings of the Fourth Republic, and ask what democracy has delivered for ordinary citizens since 1999.

Freedom and Insecurity

As earlier stated, the major tenets of democracy or the concept of presidential democracy as copied from the United States and practiced globally is ‘freedom and the concept of civil liberties. Chapter 4 of the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as amended guarantees Fundamental Rights of citizens; freedom of speech, movement and association. Yet kidnapping in Oyo, insurgency in Borno, and banditry in Zamfara mean many innocent, harmless and right-thinking Nigerians cannot safely travel to school, farm, or pursue any legitimate economic source of livelihood. Between June 6 and June 10 alone, the Nigerian army secured the release of 360 citizens from terrorist captivity, fresh kidnapping demands in Oyo State, and warnings that insecurity threatens the 2027 elections. As if these were not enough, the Global Terrorist Index released in March, 2026 showed that Nigeria rose to 4th out of 163 countries, trailing only Pakistan, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These to a larger extent lend credence to the reality that Democracy without safety does not only perpetrate poverty and underdevelopment, but also feels theoretical. Thus, insecurity is not separate from democracy. It is the condition that determines whether democracy is real or theoretical.

The Economy

The challenge facing Nigeria’s youth is no longer captured by unemployment figures alone. Although the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported youth unemployment at approximately 6.5 percent in 2024, a significant proportion of young Nigerians remain engaged in informal, low-income and vulnerable employment. For many, having a job does not necessarily mean having economic security, stable earnings or meaningful opportunities for advancement.

According to the NBS, youth unemployment and underemployment remain critical challenges, with millions marooned in informal and unstable jobs that offer very little income security. Several Nigerian citizens cannot pursue decent economic means of livelihood. Farmers cannot farm, traders cannot travel, and the geographical mobility of labour is almost grounded to a standstill due to insecurity in many parts of the country. Democracy promised dividends. For many youths, this dividend solely lies in “Japa” – emigration in search of better opportunities abroad.

Further, since the inception of the Fourth Republic and most especially under the current administration, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other institutions of the Bretton Woods have provided the blueprint or roadmap through which the ecosystem of the Nigerian state is governed. Since the achievement of presidential democracy on May 29, 1999, Nigeria has remained a net exporter of crude oil, with little or no effort geared towards industrialising the country. And just like the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), of 1986, that was characterised by regular devaluation of the naira, massive importation and the near absolute withdrawal of social safety programmes for the ordinary Nigerian, these neo-liberal policies which were absolutely not in tandem with the vision of M.K.O and the ”Hope ’93” mantra have perpetuated and continued to be the clog in the wheel of Nigeria’s economic prosperity.

Economies do not grow or develop through handouts. This is far from it. An economy grows and develops through access to credit, to power, to the internet, to markets and access to social safety net for the poor. The removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of FX among other reforms, hit businesses hard. Without targeted SME financing, tax breaks for start-ups, and reliable infrastructure, democracy feels like audio and “freedom to be poor.”

Multi-National Poverty and Elitist Subjugation

The mass of Nigerians is poor and are becoming poorer through leadership crisis and the greed elicited by the elitist class. Drawing an insight from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), poverty index survey for Nigeria 2022, the survey report indicated that 63% of persons living in Nigeria (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor and multidimensional poverty is higher in rural areas, where 72 per cent of people are poor, compared to 42 per cent of poor people in urban areas. Official minimum wage, going by the National Minimum Wage (Amendment Act of 2024), is N70,000 per month, while the representatives of the citizenry at the national assembly earn millions as take-home salaries. The IMF in this regard noted on Tuesday, June 9, that poverty levels remain elevated in Nigeria. This, among other things is a true reflection that the N70,000 take home monthly pay, cannot take a single civil servant home in a month.

It is important to note at this juncture that while president Tinubu’s speech on June 12, highlighted certain convincing achievements, particularly under his ”Renewed Hope Agenda”, including;

”In Arege, Borno State, we degraded ISWAP’s command centre. Terror-related deaths are down by 81% since 2015. Over 13,000 terrorists have been neutralised in the past year. But we also keep the door of surrender open. Over 124,000 fighters and dependents have laid down their arms since 2023 through Operation Safe Corridor. And Since 2023, our reforms have restored stability and credibility to economic management. Federation revenues have risen, providing states and local governments with more resources for infrastructure, education, healthcare, and security. Fiscal transparency has improved, leakage has been reduced, and public funds are better directed to national priorities. Investor confidence has returned, with investments in agriculture, energy, manufacturing, technology, mining, transportation, and the creative industries growing.”

While these are plausible achievements under the current incumbency, it is however pertinent to note that governments in all climes exist for the general good and as the British development economist, Dudley Seers puts it in 1969, during his influential lecture titled ”The Meaning of Development,” at the 11th World Conference of the Society for International Development, ” The question to ask about a country’s development are therefore: What has been happening to unemployment? What has been happening to poverty and what has been happening to inequality? If all three of these have declined from high levels, then beyond doubt this has been a period of development for the country concerned.”

So, as the parade ground in Abuja and every state capital in the country become inundated with flags and speeches about June 12, it is imperative to remember that the real state of the Nigerian presidential democracy and indeed the ”Epetedo Declaration” of June 11, 1994, can only be truly measured by the IDP camps in Borno state, the IDP camps in Benue state, the Oyo school kidnapping and the over 133 voiceless Nigerians, whose voices, hopes and potential have been silenced by the beneficiaries of the June 12 martyrdom.