Following the implementation of a duty-free policy for some 33 least-developed countries in Africa, in 2024, China, on May 1, 2026, opened the gigantic gate to its market to all African countries but Eswatini. This is Sino-China not only rewriting the rules of South-South cooperation, but also obstructing the old narratives of “aid for infrastructure” to “market access for partnership.”
Under this new policy, as announced by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, imports from 53 countries in Africa, including Nigeria, which maintain diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China, will now journey into China, duty-free until April 30, 2028.
With the current policy, China became the first core economy to unilaterally grant full-coverage free tariff treatment to the 53 African nations with which it partners diplomatically. And for Nigeria, one of Africa’s biggest economies and China’s second leading trading partner in Africa as of 2025, this strategic move remains a test and an opportunity.
According to Zhao Yuguo, Director of WTO at the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, some of the goods China aims for international trade or global expansion through Africa within the context of the policy agreement are semi-finished and medium-value manufactured products that require further processing within African countries before being exported back to China. For Nigeria, the most immediate exports in question are ultimately agricultural products. Ginger, cashews, oil seeds, sesame, and cocoa, including livestock and horticultural products, are among some of the products. The mining sector, including the exports of precious metals, industrial minerals, and critical earth minerals to China, also falls within the scope of the policy and can now enter China tariff-free if they meet quality standards and rules of origin.
In an article emphasizing the benefits of the zero-tariff policy in Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, the Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, stated that in Nigeria, ”the policy is expected to significantly lower the cost of exporting goods to China, particularly in the agricultural sector. Beyond initial market entry, the zero-tariff regime is also expected to drive improvement in product quality and competitiveness and by so doing, strengthen the diplomatic ties between both countries, while ensuring a win-win economic relation, economic prosperity, and a shared future between China and Nigeria.”
Experts and analysts say this move could help lower costs, boost volumes, and convert Nigeria’s export potential into more stable trade flows where local producers would be empowered to enjoy access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets. This further aligns with Nigeria’s genuine diversification push from crude oil.
Charles Okechukwu Onunaiju, scholar, author, and Director of the Centre for China Studies in Nigeria, hailed the policy as a ”milestone moment,” noting that Africa has continuously yearned for more trade, not aid, and that access to China’s market is absolutely the kind of opportunity Africa and indeed Nigeria have looked for.”
Having stated the above, it is also imperative to highlight that a handful of experts have also warned that without developing local processing capabilities to add value, Nigeria may not fully leverage the duty-free access. In the light of this, Isaac Botti (Economist) entreated that without structural changes, Nigeria risks missing the opportunity- ” If the current trade structure continues, Nigeria will not benefit. The only way forward is massive investment in manufacturing”.
There is also the risk of perpetual trade imbalance or adverse balance of trade. Nigeria’s trade with China remained heavily skewed in China’s favor and already runs a deficit. For instance, in 2025, China’s exports to Nigeria reached a record high of approximately $24.9 billion. While bilateral trade expanded and increased tremendously by 34.7% to $15.48 billion between the first and second quarters. This growth notwithstanding, the rising gap underscores Nigeria’s continued reliance on Chinese products. Thus, without deliberate policy, zero-tariff access could deepen that imbalance.
Fertilizer and fuel costs are another cause for concern, among others. With the ongoing Middle East conflict driving up global prices, Nigerian farmers may struggle to compete even with tariff relief.
Therefore, for Nigeria to get the best out of the zero-tariff policy, Nigeria must, as a matter of urgency, prioritize industrial upgrading and value addition over raw export. In this connection, Nigeria must move beyond shipping cocoa beans to exporting processed cocoa butter and chocolate. This also applies to cashew and sesame. Specifically, Nigeria can also demand co-investments in agro-processing plants and zones, while adhering to Chinese quality requirements, branding, and food safety standards.
Similarly, it is worth mentioning that China’s zero-tariff policy is only as good as Nigeria’s ports and export infrastructure. The President Tinubu-led administration must not only promptly fix the logistics bottlenecks, but should fast-track the completion of Lekki and Badagry ports and improve customs clearance, while protecting local industries. Lekki port must work. Customs must move from paper to digital. China’s policy and promise will merely be a flash in the pan if containers continue to sit in Apapa for 15 to 30 days or more.
Further, to maximize this opportunity, Nigeria must invest in infrastructure, including electricity and logistics, to lower the cost of production and exports.
On a final note, and most importantly, the managers of the Nigerian economy must find the right resources to negotiate the next phase of this noble policy. The current policy, as it were, is a two-year breather or buffer that will enable future negotiations and create the required impetus for a broader China-Nigeria and indeed China-Africa economic and diplomatic pact. Against this backdrop, Nigeria should bell the cat for the African push for technology transfer, manufacturing, and industrial development.
In conclusion, diplomatically, this policy strengthens Beijing’s position as Africa’s most reliable trade partner at a time when the U.S. has displayed potential failings and fault lines in diplomacy and multilateralism. In economic or trade terms, this policy underpins Beijing’s strategic overture. And as noted by China’s envoy to Nigeria, China must, as such, provide technical assistance and capacity-building programs, as well as improved trade facilitation measures such as expedited clearance channels for agricultural exports to support this transition. And for Nigeria, this policy offers a rare opportunity to transition or divest from commodity dependence and the exports of raw cashew and sesame to a more export-led growth. Indeed, Nigeria will win by owning the middle of the supply chain.
So, no matter how beautiful and plausible this policy is, whether it becomes a lifeline or a liability for Nigeria depends on what happens in Lagos ports, Benue farms, and Abuja FEC meetings.
